From the Census Bureau:
The Population Projections Program produces projections of the United States resident population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The 2012 National Projections are based on the July 1, 2011 population estimates, which are based on the 2010 Census, and provide projections of the population for July 1, 2012 to July 1, 2060. The projections were produced using a cohort-component method and are based on assumptions about future births, deaths, and net international migration. The Census Bureau releases new national projections periodically.
The 2012 National Projections include a main series and three alternative series. These four projections series provide results for differing assumptions of net international migration. The main series, referred to as the Middle series, was released in December 2012. The alternative series, released in May 2013, were based on assumptions of low, high, and constant levels of net international migration. All other methodology and assumptions, including fertility and mortality, are the same as those used in the Middle series. The three alternative series are useful for analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of net international migration.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Thursday, May 16, 2013
International Migration to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth?
International migration is projected to surpass natural increase (births minus deaths) as the principal driver of U.S. population growth by the middle of this century, according to three new series of population projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau. This scenario would mark the first time that natural increase was not the leading cause of population increase since at least 1850, when the census began collecting information about residents’ country of birth. The shift in what drives U.S. population growth is projected to occur between 2027 and 2038, depending on the future level of international migration.
“Our nation has had higher immigration rates in the past, particularly during the great waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries,” said Thomas Mesenbourg, the Census Bureau’s senior adviser. “This projected milestone reflects the mix of our nation’s declining fertility rates, the aging of the baby boomer population and continued immigration.”
The three new projections cover the period from 2012 to 2060. These alternative series complete the official set of 2012 National Population Projections, which began with the middle series projections released in December 2012. All four series maintain the same methodology and fertility and mortality assumptions, and differ only in the levels of net international migration they assume. They are broken out by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.
“Projections of international migration are challenging to produce, because it is difficult to anticipate future social, political, and economic conditions and how they may influence migration into or out of the United States,” notes Census Bureau demographer Jennifer Ortman. “Developing this range of alternative projections shows how differing levels of net international migration alter the pace at which the U.S. population grows, ages, and diversifies.”
Higher international migration would mean a faster growing, more diverse, and younger U.S. population. The December 2012 series projected net international migration to increase from 725,000 in 2012 to 1.2 million in 2060. In contrast, the alternative measures are considerably different:
--The low series would increase annual levels of net international migration slightly from 702,000 in 2012, to 824,000 in 2060.
--The high series would increase net international migration from 747,000 in 2012 to 1.6 million by 2060.
--The final series projects a constant level of net international migration of 725,000 throughout the 2012-2060 period.
The high series projects that the U.S. population will hit 400 million by 2044, earlier than the 2051 date the December series projected. The high series also projects that the U.S. resident population will become majority-minority by 2041, two years earlier than the December projection of 2043. In other words, less than 50 percent of the population will be non-Hispanic single-race white.
The share of the population that is working age (18 to 64 years old) is projected to decrease in all four series by 2060. The high series projects the smallest decrease in the share of the population in working ages (from 62.7 percent in 2012 to 57.3 percent in 2060). The share of the working-age population would drop in the December 2012 middle series from 62.7 percent in 2012 to 56.9 percent of the total in 2060. In each of the four series (including the December 2012 projections), the population 65 and older would rise from 13.7 percent in 2012 to more than 20 percent in 2060.
The high series also projects that the minority population ─ all people except for those that are non-Hispanic, single-race white ─ would climb from 37 percent of the total in 2012 to 58.8 percent in 2060. In contrast, the U.S. minority population would reach 55.9 percent in the low series. The Asian population, 5.1 percent of the total in 2012, would reach 7.3 percent in 2060 in the low series and 9 percent in the high series. Similarly, the Hispanic population was 17 percent of the total in 2012 and is projected to reach 29.9 percent in 2060 in the low series and 31.3 percent in the high series.
Other highlights:
--Total U.S. population in 2060 ranges from 392.7 million in the constant series to 442.4 million in the high series.
--The 65 and older population would outnumber the population younger than 18 as of 2038 in the constant series, 2046 in the low series, and 2056 in the December 2012 projections. In the high series, the under-18 population would remain greater than the 65 and older population throughout the period.
--The population younger than 18, 23.5 percent of the total in 2012, would drop to 20.8 percent in 2060 in the constant series. In the high series, it would decrease to 21.4 percent in 2060.
--The series with the latest projected date for when the U.S. population would become majority-minority (2046) is the constant series.
--The population under 18 years is projected to become majority-minority in either 2018 or 2019 in all four series.
--The working-age population is projected to become majority-minority between 2036 (high series) and 2042 (constant series).
--The percentage of the population 65 and older that is minority would increase in each series, but not become majority-minority by 2060 in any of them.
“Our nation has had higher immigration rates in the past, particularly during the great waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries,” said Thomas Mesenbourg, the Census Bureau’s senior adviser. “This projected milestone reflects the mix of our nation’s declining fertility rates, the aging of the baby boomer population and continued immigration.”
The three new projections cover the period from 2012 to 2060. These alternative series complete the official set of 2012 National Population Projections, which began with the middle series projections released in December 2012. All four series maintain the same methodology and fertility and mortality assumptions, and differ only in the levels of net international migration they assume. They are broken out by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.
“Projections of international migration are challenging to produce, because it is difficult to anticipate future social, political, and economic conditions and how they may influence migration into or out of the United States,” notes Census Bureau demographer Jennifer Ortman. “Developing this range of alternative projections shows how differing levels of net international migration alter the pace at which the U.S. population grows, ages, and diversifies.”
Higher international migration would mean a faster growing, more diverse, and younger U.S. population. The December 2012 series projected net international migration to increase from 725,000 in 2012 to 1.2 million in 2060. In contrast, the alternative measures are considerably different:
--The low series would increase annual levels of net international migration slightly from 702,000 in 2012, to 824,000 in 2060.
--The high series would increase net international migration from 747,000 in 2012 to 1.6 million by 2060.
--The final series projects a constant level of net international migration of 725,000 throughout the 2012-2060 period.
The high series projects that the U.S. population will hit 400 million by 2044, earlier than the 2051 date the December series projected. The high series also projects that the U.S. resident population will become majority-minority by 2041, two years earlier than the December projection of 2043. In other words, less than 50 percent of the population will be non-Hispanic single-race white.
The share of the population that is working age (18 to 64 years old) is projected to decrease in all four series by 2060. The high series projects the smallest decrease in the share of the population in working ages (from 62.7 percent in 2012 to 57.3 percent in 2060). The share of the working-age population would drop in the December 2012 middle series from 62.7 percent in 2012 to 56.9 percent of the total in 2060. In each of the four series (including the December 2012 projections), the population 65 and older would rise from 13.7 percent in 2012 to more than 20 percent in 2060.
The high series also projects that the minority population ─ all people except for those that are non-Hispanic, single-race white ─ would climb from 37 percent of the total in 2012 to 58.8 percent in 2060. In contrast, the U.S. minority population would reach 55.9 percent in the low series. The Asian population, 5.1 percent of the total in 2012, would reach 7.3 percent in 2060 in the low series and 9 percent in the high series. Similarly, the Hispanic population was 17 percent of the total in 2012 and is projected to reach 29.9 percent in 2060 in the low series and 31.3 percent in the high series.
Other highlights:
--Total U.S. population in 2060 ranges from 392.7 million in the constant series to 442.4 million in the high series.
--The 65 and older population would outnumber the population younger than 18 as of 2038 in the constant series, 2046 in the low series, and 2056 in the December 2012 projections. In the high series, the under-18 population would remain greater than the 65 and older population throughout the period.
--The population younger than 18, 23.5 percent of the total in 2012, would drop to 20.8 percent in 2060 in the constant series. In the high series, it would decrease to 21.4 percent in 2060.
--The series with the latest projected date for when the U.S. population would become majority-minority (2046) is the constant series.
--The population under 18 years is projected to become majority-minority in either 2018 or 2019 in all four series.
--The working-age population is projected to become majority-minority between 2036 (high series) and 2042 (constant series).
--The percentage of the population 65 and older that is minority would increase in each series, but not become majority-minority by 2060 in any of them.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Access and Experiences Regarding Health Care
Access to and the quality of the health care received by Americans is an issue of public policy concern because the level of quality of health care impacts the capacity to deliver timely, accessible, and efficient medical care to the population in need of services. Estimates of quality are important in evaluating the costs and outcomes of health care delivery and to help identify potential areas where improvements can be made. A self-administered questionnaire (SAQ) is distributed to all adults age 18 and older within the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to collect information on health care utilization, access, health status, and the quality of health care received.
Access and Experiences Regarding Health Care
Also from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality:
National Healthcare Disparities Report, 2013
National Healthcare Quality Report, 2012
Access and Experiences Regarding Health Care
Also from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality:
National Healthcare Disparities Report, 2013
National Healthcare Quality Report, 2012
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Demographic Yearbook 2011
The Demographic Yearbook is an international compendium of national demographic statistics provided by national statistical authorities to the Statistics Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The Demographic Yearbook is part of the set of coordinated and interrelated publications issued by the United Nations and its specialized agencies, designed to supply statistical data for such users as demographers, economists, public-health workers and sociologists. Through the co-operation of national statistical services, available official demographic statistics are compiled in the Demographic Yearbook for more than 230 countries or areas throughout the world.
The Demographic Yearbook 2011 is the sixty-second issue in a series published by the United Nations since 1948. It contains tables on a wide range of demographic statistics, including a world summary of selected demographic statistics, statistics on the size, distribution and trends in national populations, fertility, foetal mortality, infant and maternal mortality, general mortality, nuptiality and divorce. Data are shown by urban/rural residence,
as available. In addition, the volume provides Technical Notes, a synoptic table, a historic al index and a listing of the issues of the Demographic Yearbook published to date. This issue of Demographic Yearbook contains data as available including reference year 2011.
The Demographic Yearbook 2011 is the sixty-second issue in a series published by the United Nations since 1948. It contains tables on a wide range of demographic statistics, including a world summary of selected demographic statistics, statistics on the size, distribution and trends in national populations, fertility, foetal mortality, infant and maternal mortality, general mortality, nuptiality and divorce. Data are shown by urban/rural residence,
as available. In addition, the volume provides Technical Notes, a synoptic table, a historic al index and a listing of the issues of the Demographic Yearbook published to date. This issue of Demographic Yearbook contains data as available including reference year 2011.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Deer Harvest Reports & Information By State
Deer harvest reports are useful because deer hunters use them to identify the densest deer populations. Some states even break down their reports by county, game type and hunter type, or show them over time so that you can identify trends. Most deer harvest reports are funded in part by the purchase of hunting licenses and tags.
The real interest of this topic, for me as an information specialist, is this:
Other funding that has come from the government has been cut drastically or eliminated altogether. You will notice that some of the states have not updated their deer harvest statistics for a couple of years due to lack of funds.
More here.
The real interest of this topic, for me as an information specialist, is this:
Other funding that has come from the government has been cut drastically or eliminated altogether. You will notice that some of the states have not updated their deer harvest statistics for a couple of years due to lack of funds.
More here.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Is Your State's Highest-Paid Employee A Coach? (Probably) -Infographic
You may have heard that the highest-paid employee in each state is usually the football coach at the largest state school. This is actually a gross mischaracterization: Sometimes it is the basketball coach.
Based on data drawn from media reports and state salary databases, the ranks of the highest-paid active public employees include 27 football coaches, 13 basketball coaches, one hockey coach...
More HERE.
Based on data drawn from media reports and state salary databases, the ranks of the highest-paid active public employees include 27 football coaches, 13 basketball coaches, one hockey coach...
More HERE.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Jacob and Sophia Repeat atop Social Security’s Most Popular Baby Names List
Jacob and Sophia are repeat champions as America’s most popular baby names for 2012. This is the fourteenth year in a row Jacob tops the list for boys and the second year for Sophia. There is a new couple in the top 10 this year--Elizabeth and Liam replace Chloe and Daniel. Elizabeth has been here before, but this is the first time Liam breaks into the top 10. Perhaps Liam’s new found success can be attributed to Liam Neeson’s recent major roles in “Battleship” and the popular “Taken,” “The Chronicles of Narnia,” and “Clash of the Titans” franchises.
Fastest-rising baby names for girls in 2012
1. Arya
2. Perla
3. Catalina
4. Elisa
5. Raelynn
6. Rosalie
7. Haven
8. Raelyn
9. Briella
10. Marilyn
Fastest-rising names for boys
1. Major
2. Gael
3. Jase
4. Messiah
5. Brantley
6. Iker
7. King
8. Rory
9. Ari
10. Maverick
For all the top baby names of 2012, go to Social Security’s website www.socialsecurity.gov.
Fastest-rising baby names for girls in 2012
1. Arya
2. Perla
3. Catalina
4. Elisa
5. Raelynn
6. Rosalie
7. Haven
8. Raelyn
9. Briella
10. Marilyn
Fastest-rising names for boys
1. Major
2. Gael
3. Jase
4. Messiah
5. Brantley
6. Iker
7. King
8. Rory
9. Ari
10. Maverick
For all the top baby names of 2012, go to Social Security’s website www.socialsecurity.gov.
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