The U.S. economy to 2024

The U.S. economy continues to heal in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Steadily recovering consumption, investment, and housing assist an improving economy, whereas structural factors, such as an aging population, limit the prospects for more rapid growth over the coming decade. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that growth will continue, but at a slower rate than that seen before the onset of the 2007–09 recession.

The United States is now more than 6 years into a recovery characterized by slow growth in gross domestic product (GDP), a declining labor force participation rate, low inflation, and disappointing productivity gains. From 2010 to 2014, GDP growth averaged just 2.1 percent annually, a much slower rate than the 3.0-percent or higher annual growth experienced in recent decades.

More from Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Watch 35 Years of the World’s Economy Evolving as a Living Organism

A lot has happened to the global economy over the last 35 years. The forces of economic liberalization, globalization, and the rise of the multinational corporation have all left their mark. Many countries have benefited over this period, but some have suffered. Others have not really changed much in terms of their global economic position.

More from How Much.

2015 KIDS COUNT Data Book

The Annie E. Casey Foundation’s annual report on child well-being — the 2015 KIDS COUNT Data Book — focuses on the state of America’s children in the midst of the country's economic recovery. While data show improvements in child health and education, more families are struggling to make ends meet, and a growing number of kids live in high-poverty neighborhoods. In addition to ranking states in several areas of child well-being, the Data Book also examines the influence of parents’ education, health and other life circumstances on their children.

You can access the Data Book and related materials HERE.

U.S. Economy Added Nearly 245,000 Nonemployer Businesses in 2012

The number of businesses without paid employees in the U.S. reached 22.7 million in 2012, up 1.1 percent from 2011, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks the third straight annual increase in nonemployer businesses, which are businesses with no paid employees, annual business receipts of $1,000 or more ($1 or more in the construction sector) and are subject to federal income taxes.

Nearly all industry sectors that make up nonemployer businesses experienced growth in the number of establishments and receipts, according to findings from the report released this week. Nonemployer Statistics: 2012 includes data on nearly 450 industries in metropolitan areas, counties, states and nationwide.

“Nonemployer businesses represent entrepreneurship in perhaps its purest form, including the classic ‘mom and pop’ shops and people running businesses out of their homes,” said William Bostic Jr., the associate director for economic programs at the Census Bureau.
This release covers 19.6 million sole proprietorships, 1.4 million corporations and 1.7 million partnerships, which account for the total number of nonemployer businesses.

Florida had the largest increase in nonemployer businesses, with 57,978 added in 2012. California (39,051), Texas (38,504) and New York (15,207) had the next highest increases. California still had the largest number of nonemployer businesses with 2.9 million.

The Most Important Economic Stories of 2013—in 44 Graphs

Maybe it's just me, but the last few years are getting tough to tell apart. Imagine a quiz question:

Name that year where we threw obstacles in the recovery's way, but kept growing slowly; where Europe avoided both a disaster and a solution to its mess; and where China kept growing over 7 percent, but didn't rebalance its economy like it said it wants.

You'd be right to guess 2013. You'd also be right to guess 2012, 2011, or 2010.


More from The Atlantic.

U.S. Corporations are Hoarding Wealth at Highest Rate Since 1971

From Sociological Images:

The dominant firms in the U.S. and other major capitalist counties are happily making profits, but they aren't interested in investing them in new plants and equipment that increase productivity and create jobs. Rather they prefer to use their earnings to acquire other firms, reward their managers and shareholders, or increase their holdings of cash and other financial assets.

The increase in profits has swamped the increase in investment over the relevant time period; in fact, investment in current dollars has actually been falling.

Looking at the ratio between these two variables helps us see even more clearly the growth in firm reluctance to channel profits into investment. The investment ratio (investment/profits) was 62% in 1971, peaked at 69% in 1979, fell to 61% in 2000 and 56% in 2008, and dropped to an even lower 46% in 2012.

According to Michael Burke, if U.S. firms were simply to invest at the level they did in 1979, not even the peak, the increase in investment in the American economy would exceed $1.5 trillion, close to 10% of GDP.

State Economic Profiles 2011

The Office of Advocacy’s Small Business Profiles for the States and Territories supply data on small businesses in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The publication also provides national-level data and limited data on the U.S. territories. The usefulness of the publication is the great detail it provides about small businesses at the state level. The following topics are covered: the number of firms, demographics of business ownership, small business income, banking, business turnover, industry composition, and employment gains and losses by size of business.

2011 Small Business Profiles for the States and Territories
2011 Small Business Profiles for New York State [PDF]

The Rising Age Gap in Economic Well-being

Source: Pew Research Center [PDF]

Households headed by older adults have made dramatic gains relative to those headed by younger adults in their economic well-being over the past quarter of a century, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of a wide array of government data. In 2009, households headed by adults ages 65 and older possessed 42% more median net worth (assets minus debt) than households headed by their same-aged counterparts had in 1984. During this same period, households headed by adults younger than 35 had 68% less wealth than households of their same-aged counterparts had.

Your Economy

Explore economic activity in your own community - and across the country.

YourEconomy.org is a business census containing more than 24 million active establishments (over 41 million total) providing detailed information about the performance of businesses from a local to a national perspective.

Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy

Business Employment Dynamics

Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the growth of the U.S. economy. As the primary source for information on the nation’s labor market, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data on new businesses and job creation. The following highlights from data series produced by BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program provide some insights on the contribution of new and small businesses to the number of businesses and jobs in the economy.

SUNY System the Key to New York’s Economic Future

Albany, N.Y. -- A comprehensive statewide study finds that the State University of New York is positioned to be the critical force in building a new innovation economy for New York -- with a broad and diverse array of economic development activities already in place across the 64-campus system, and with a growing potential to do more in the future.

The study, a joint project of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the University at Albany and of the University at Buffalo Regional Institute, reported that the SUNY system had an economic impact of a minimum of $19.8 billion in 2008-09, based on the spending of its colleges and universities, students, employees and campus visitors.

But the institutes' report, How SUNY Matters: Economic Impacts of the State University of New York [PDF], found that the system is making an even more important contribution to New York's future economy -- to the state's capacity to grow and produce jobs in the new economy of the 21st Century.

More HERE.

Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy

Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the growth of the U.S. economy. As the primary source for information on the nation’s labor market, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data on new businesses and job creation. The following highlights from data series produced by BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) program provide some insights on the contribution of new and small businesses to the number of businesses and jobs in the economy.

International Economic Trends

From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

ETA publishes new Guide to State and Local Workforce Data

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration (ETA) has published its Guide to State and Local Workforce Data: For Analysis and Informed Decision Making. The guide provides links to a wealth of State and local employment and economic data from government and private sector sources.

County Compensation by Industry, 2009

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Compensation declined in two-thirds of the 3,113 counties in the U.S. in 2009, according to statistics released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Total compensation of U.S. workers contracted 3.2 percent in 2009, as a decline in employment more than offset the increase in average annual compensation per job, which grew 1.2 percent to $56,962. Inflation measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, grew 0.2 percent.

The Effect of the Economy on the Nonprofit Sector

The Guidestar June 2010 economic survey, which measured the impact of these difficult economic times on the nonprofit sector. Among respondents, nearly half were CEOs, executive directors, or presidents—our leaders in the nonprofit industry. The results are compelling:
• Some 40 percent of participants reported that contributions to their organizations dropped between January 1 and May 31, 2010, compared to the same period a year earlier.
• Eight percent indicated that their organizations were in imminent danger of closing.
• Sixty-three percent reported a total increase in demand for their organization's services between January 1, 2010 and May 31, 2010, compared to the same period a year prior.

Universities play key role in the new economy

Universities and higher education systems across the country are taking leading roles in their states’ economic development efforts — and a report released today by the Rockefeller Institute of Government says this trend seems likely to strengthen as the nation moves into the era of an “innovation economy.” The study found that higher education’s increasingly important role builds on, but goes well beyond, the research strengths of universities — incorporating efforts as wide-ranging as job training, business consulting, housing rehabilitation and even securing seed money for new businesses.

The report, A New Paradigm for Economic Development, was written by David Shaffer, a senior fellow at the Institute, and David Wright, the Institute’s director of urban and metropolitan studies. It was conducted at the request of State University of New York Chancellor Nancy L. Zimpher, who has made economic revitalization a centerpiece of the strategic planning process she is conducting for the 64-campus system.
To read the report, see the Institute's Web site.

The Decline and Fall of the Nation's Peak Earners

In the American Consumers Newsletter for February 11, 2010, Elizabeth Warren notes that the decline of the American middle class predated the recent recession:

Household income is down. Household income follows a trajectory, starting low among young adults, rising as people gain experience in their career, peaking in the 45-to-54 age group, then falling as people begin to retire. Householders aged 45 to 54 are still the nation's peak earners, but they stand atop a much smaller hill than they once did. Here is the thirty-year trend in the median income of householders aged 45 to 54 (in 2008 dollars):

Median Income, Householders Aged 45 to 54
2008 $64,349
1998 $71,429
1988 $66,830
1978 $64,152

That's right. The median household income of today's peak earners is only $197 more than the median income of the same age group in 1978. Their median income is $2,481 less than the income of the same age group in 1988. It is $7,080 less than the median income of the same age group in 1998. The stagnation and decline of the household incomes of peak earners has occurred despite growing numbers of working women. In 1978, only 57 percent of women aged 45 to 54 were in the labor force. Today, 76 percent are working.

The Small Business Economy: A Report to the President 2009

The 2009 edition of The Small Business Economy documents the 2008 recession’s effects on small business as well as their role in the 2008 economy. The report includes chapters focusing on the state of small business (with brief subsections on small business challenges such as health care and globalization, as well as contributions in job creation and innovation) and financing. Appendices include additional data on small firms and a summary of Advocacy research published in 2008.

• Small businesses in most industries, especially in the construction industry hard hit by the housing market downturn, saw declines in employment.

• Average unincorporated self-employment fell from 10.4 million in 2007 to 0.1 million in 2008 and averaged 9.6 million by November and December 2008.

• Incorporated self-employment remained steady at 5.8 million on average over the 2007-2008 period.

• Some surveys found small firms expressing less willingness to expand, hire new workers, invest in new plant and equipment, or borrow money, at least in the near term.

• Health care costs remain a major concern for small firms: according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average annual cost of a family premium for employer-sponsored health insurance increased 119 percent between 1999 and 2008, with a 5 percent increase in 2008 from the previous year.

• Real exports have risen steadily since 2005, outpacing the growth in imports; the value of real exports increased 6.2 percent in 2008.

• Most small businesses faced a less accommodating credit market, especially in the second half of 2008.

• Lenders exhibited widening interest rate spreads and tightening terms of lending.

• Business borrowing plunged in the fourth quarter of 2008 to a low annual rate comparable to the levels experienced in the 2001 recession.

• According to June 2007-June 2008 Call Report data, developments in the financial markets had a limited impact on small business lending in the first half of 2008.

• Despite the lack of very current financial data, a number of indicators suggest that the flow of funds to small firms was much curtailed by the end of 2008.

A copy of The Small Business Economy: A Report to the President 2009 can be found here (PDF) and the research summary can be found here (PDF).

Economy at a Glance

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces Economy at a Glance pages at the national, regional, state, and metropolitan area levels. The data displayed in these pages are assembled from different surveys and programs conducted by BLS. The Economy at a Glance pages are refreshed with current data every time any of the source programs releases new statistics. This typically occurs 7-9 times per month.