What is the ‘Real’ Unemployment Rate?

From the US Department of Labor:

At the Department of Labor we regularly get questions about what the “real” unemployment rate is. Another way to state these questions might be “What is the measure that truly captures the state of job opportunities?” The answer, it turns out, is there isn’t just one. There is no way to capture the state of something as complex as the U.S. labor market with one number. That is why the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a huge array of measures, which together provide a comprehensive picture of the state of job opportunities.

The “official” unemployment rate is the most well-known. BLS defines a worker as unemployed if they are jobless but actively seeking work. The official unemployment rate is the number of workers who are unemployed divided by the number of workers who are either employed or unemployed. At its peak in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the official unemployment rate reached 10 percent; as of August 2016, it is now down to 4.9.

In BLS publications, the official unemployment rate is referred to as the U-3. Though the U-3 gets the most attention, BLS also publishes five other measures of labor underutilization (U-1, U-2, U-4, U-5, and U-6), each of which measure labor underutilization in a different way. The broadest measure – the U-6 (sometimes referred to in the press as the “underemployment rate”) – includes not just the officially unemployed, but also the “marginally attached” (those who are neither working nor looking for work but who want and are available to work and have looked for work in the past year), and people who are working part-time but want a full-time job. At its peak in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the U-6 was 17.1 percent; it is now down to 9.7 percent.

Reasons for unemployment in November 2015

In November 2015, about 3.9 million people were unemployed because they had lost their jobs involuntarily or had completed temporary jobs. There were 586,000 fewer unemployed job losers in November than a year earlier. There were 2,444,000 unemployed reentrants to the labor force in November 2015, about 317,000 fewer than a year earlier. Reentrants are people who previously worked but were out of the labor force before they began their job search.

There were 843,000 unemployed new entrants to the labor force in November 2015, down 202,000 from a year earlier. These are people who had never worked before they began their job search. There were 800,000 unemployed job leavers in November 2015, about the same as a year earlier. These are people who quit or voluntarily ended their jobs and began searching for a new job.

Bureau of Statistics

How Nonemployed Americans Spend Their Weekdays: Men vs. Women

From the New York Times:

Every year, the American Time Use Survey asks thousands of Americans to record a minute-by-minute account of one single day. For many “prime-age” adults, those between the ages of 25 and 54, a significant chunk of time on weekdays is taken up by work. But for the almost 30 million prime-age Americans who don’t work, a typical weekday looks far different.

Nonworkers spend much more time doing housework. Men without jobs, in particular, spend more time watching television, while women without jobs spend more time taking care of others. And the nonemployed of both sexes spend more time sleeping than their employed counterparts.

Unemployment rates by educational attainment and veteran status

Unemployment rates by educational attainment, October 2014

In October 2014, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent. For those 25 years and older with a bachelor's degree or more education, the unemployment rate was 3.1 percent, down from 3.8 percent in October 2013. For those with some college or an associate degree, the unemployment rate was 4.8 percent, down from 6.3 percent the previous year.

Employment and unemployment among all veterans, Gulf-War era II veterans, and nonveterans

In 2013, the employment-population ratio for all veterans was 47.9 percent, compared to 61.4 percent for nonveterans age 18 and over. (The ratio is the number of employed people as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population age 18 and older.) Gulf-War era II veterans, who served on active duty anywhere in the world sometime since September 2001, had an employment-population ratio of 73.3 percent in 2013.

Best Small Cities for Starting Over (one in NYS)

Do you need a change of pace but the big city life is too fast for you? For a smaller setting that still offers plentiful job opportunities and chances to meet other singles, we have the list for you.

Smaller cities have the advantage of smaller crowds with attractions, stores, and restaurants that are within close reach. They may not have major corporations as an anchor, but these small cities have a lot of innovation, growth, and charm to keep you interested and fulfilled in your new life.

A city experiencing population growth signifies that it is a desirable area for people looking to move, whether for social or economic reasons. This statistic, combined with some of the others we used for this study, also indicates when a particular place has a strong job market, affordable housing, and entertainment attractions.

Next, we looked at each city’s income growth and unemployment rate, both of which shed light on the all-important economic conditions of an area. Not only are the cities in our top 10 witnessing lower unemployment rates, they’re also seeing salary increases, which is good news for residents.

Finally, for those who are looking for love (usually a good reason to start over!), we factored in the percentage of unmarried adults in each city, making it easier to find your match. And with your new job, you should have plenty of extra cash to wine and dine the new person in your life.

See the results from Credit Donkey HERE.

College majors, unemployment and earnings 2013

From the press release (georgetown.edu)

In the past, a college degree all but assured job seekers employment and high earnings, but today, what you make depends on what you take. In Hard Times 2013, we show differences in unemployment and earnings based on major for BA and graduate degree holders. We show that STEM — Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics — majors typically offer the best opportunities for employment and earnings, while unemployment is higher for graduates with non-technical degrees.

Here are some of our major findings:

1. Even as the housing bubble seems to be dissipating, unemployment rates for recent architecture graduates have remained high (12.8%)...

2. Unemployment is generally higher for non-technical majors, such as the arts (9.8%) or law and public policy (9.2%).

3. People who make technology are still better off than people who use technology...

4. Unemployment rates are relatively low for recent graduates in education (5.0%), engineering (7.0%), health and the sciences (4.8%)...

Young adult employment during the recent recession

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics

The recent recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 and had different consequences for various demographic groups, with higher job losses affecting African Americans, Hispanics or Latinos, workers with lower levels of education, and younger workers.

Young adult employment during the recent recession :

The recent recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, with the unemployment rate increasing from 5.0 percent at the beginning of the recession to 9.6 percent at the end. This article compares the labor market experiences of young adults (24- and 25-year-olds) over an 18-month period prior to the last recession to those of young adults of the same age over the 18 months of the recent recession. Many of these young adults had recently entered the labor market, and research has shown that workers who enter the labor market during a recession can see long-term negative effects on their employment and earnings.

Revisions to Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data

At the end of every calendar year, BLS makes routine revisions to the seasonally adjusted data in the Current Population Survey (CPS), which includes the national unemployment rate. The revisions include all additional information to identify if changes in the data are one-time or seasonal temporary blips as opposed to permanent changes in the numbers. These changes are usually minor and don’t drastically change labor market trends. With this month’s release of the employment situation, BLS made that same set of routine revisions, and as expected, the changes to 2011 data were minor.

More HERE.

Unemployment Assistance

The New York State Department of Labor devotes an entire section of its web site to "Unemployment Assistance" HERE. Information is available in ten languages in addition to English. Broad categories include General Unemployment Information, Claims and Eligibility Deadlines, and Information for Employers.

For those recently unemployed, the FAQ called "Before You Apply For Unemployment" is available HERE and a video "How to File an Unemployment Insurance Claim" can be viewed HERE.

The "Looking For a Job" section of the web site HERE provides links to information about finding employment, including assistance available from the Department of Labor.

The Decline: The Geography of a Recession

A very interesting graphical representation of the unemployment rate changes over the past few years.

BLS Update

From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: A listing of the latest publications from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is now available here, including The Employment Situation: July 2009. Please refer questions to blsdata_staff@bls.gov

Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas

Beneath the constant drumbeat of headline numbers emanating from Washington on U.S. jobs, national unemployment, GDP, and home prices lies a complex, diverse set of 366 metropolitan economies. While no metro area has been immune from the current economic downturn, the pain is unevenly distributed. Some have felt only modest effects, and a few show early signs of recovery, while others are undergoing a wrenching restructuring that may fundamentally alter their economic trajectory.

The MetroMonitor, an interactive barometer of the health of America’s metropolitan economies, looks “beneath the hood” of national economic statistics to portray the diverse metropolitan landscape of recession and recovery across the country. It aims to enhance understanding of the underpinnings of national economic trends, and to promote public- and private-sector responses to the downturn that take into account metro areas’ unique starting points, weaknesses, and strengths—the potential “grassroots green shoots”—for eventual recovery.

U.S. Regional Population Losses Linked to High Unemployment

High unemployment rates are not just creating a drag on the U.S. economy, but are also linked to lagging population growth in economically distressed areas, according to a Population Reference Bureau analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Between 2007 and 2008, the population in distressed counties—areas with unemployment rates of 6 percent or more in 2007—grew 0.3 percent, compared with a 1.2 percent growth rate in areas with relatively low unemployment (less than 4 percent). Nationwide, the population grew 0.9 percent during 2007-2008.

Unemployment

The State Labor Department estimates the unemployment numbers and rates for communities of 25,000 or more. You can find these here.

U.S. Unemployment Understated in Recent Data

As the nation struggles to get a sense of the depth of the current recession, a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) demonstrates that the current unemployment rate is higher than conventionally measured and is already at roughly the same level as the high reached in 1982, the year with the highest unemployment rate since World War II.

Job Cuts by Major Companies

FIRST-QUARTER LAYOFFS: Selection Of Job Cuts By Major Companies, Dow Jones News Service

Pink Slips Layoff Tracker from Forbes

Labor Underutilization Measures for States

A new webpage, Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States, has been posted on the BLS site. A table on this page shows U-1 to U-6 for the states (2008 annual averages). For example, U-4 includes discouraged workers. By this measure the unemployment rate in New Jersey in 2008 was 5.7 percent, while the rate for New York was 5.9 percent.

As a BLS reconomist noted: "Though these data pertain to the recently-ended calendar year, the deterioration in the labor market in 2008 was so rapid and pronounced that many of these measures understate the current degree of labor market underutilization. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate in December 2008 was 7.2 percent (seasonally adjusted), well above the 5.8 percent average for the year as a whole."